Over the holidays, I finally watched several of the big Oscar-bait films of 2023. I watched Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Anatomy of a Fall, Asteroid City, The Holdovers and I started (but did not finish) Saltburn. I think these films represent some of the biggest performances of the year and some of the most likely Oscar nominees – like, some of the Best Actor nomination locks are: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Leo DiCaprio (Killers). There are many arguing that Bradley Cooper is a lock for a nomination for Maestro, but given the sh-tty reviews and everyone rolling their eyes at B-Coop’s try-hardness, I wouldn’t even call Maestro a lock for ANY nominations. The other possible best-actor nominees will likely include Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn, but doubtful), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) or Colman Domingo (Rustin).

This whole time, I’ve sort of considered Cillian Murphy the one to beat in the Best Actor race. The film hinged on his performance, he was genuinely brilliant in it, he’s been around forever and done great work consistently, and Oppenheimer was one of the biggest films of the year. Like, of course the Oscar is Cillian’s to lose, right? Well, the New York Times’ critic and awards-season specialist Kyle Buchanan had a different thought:

After seeing The Holdovers… I’m not sure I agree, but it’s an interesting thought. Giamatti is wonderful in the film, The Holdovers is one of Alexander Payne’s best, and Giamatti is a truly beloved American actor, churning out great performances consistently in film and television. If Oscar voters think that they’re giving Giamatti an Oscar for his career, I could see him challenging Cillian’s chances. What’s even funnier about this Murphy vs. Giamatti head-to-head is that I’m not sure either man cares that much. My thought was “well, it will come down to who wages the better Oscar campaign,” but let’s be real – Cillian will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to those Oscar-voter screenings and the man isn’t a glad-hander or an ass-kisser. Giamatti might be more into it – he already seems to be doing the Oscar-voter screenings and glad-handing, just in a quiet way. Anyway, it’s interesting. The Best Actor race might be super-competitive this year.

Oh, and Giamatti was on the SAG-AFTRA picket line too. That will matter to a lot of pro-union Oscar voters.

Photos courtesy of Cover Images, ‘The Holdovers’ posters courtesy of Focus Features.